Did Home Advantage Come Back After the Empty Stadiums?

According to an analysis by Jabula Bets, based on data from football-data.co.uk, the proportion of home wins in the five major European leagues fell to 39.9% in the 2020/21 season when stadiums were empty. This was down from an average of 46.2% in the three seasons prior to the pandemic. In the 2023/24, 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, the average was 43.0%, meaning some of the shortfall was made up, though not entirely.

The analysis covers all Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1 matches from the 2016/17 to the 2025/26 season. It is based on match results and data on yellow cards. During the season played behind closed doors, the goal difference for home teams and the number of additional yellow cards for away teams also fell.

The empty-stadium period removed crowd pressure while teams still travelled and played on familiar grounds. (source: The Independent)

Home Advantage Season by Season

According to football-data.co.uk records, the home goal difference per match increased from +0.15 in the 2020/21 season to +0.28 in the 2021/22 season. Meanwhile, the difference in away team yellow cards rose from +0.06 to +0.26.

According to the records at football-data.co.uk, the home win rate then reached 45.7 per cent in the 2022/23 season, falling in each of the following two seasons. However, it increased from 42.0 per cent in the 2024/25 season to 44.0 per cent in the 2025/26 season.

Home advantage by season, Europe's top five leagues

Source: Article analysis using match results and card records from football-data.co.uk.

What the Covid Study Found

In a 2021 article in Economics Letters, Bryson and colleagues analysed matches from 17 countries. The proportion of matches ending in a home win fell from 43.8 per cent before the lockdown to 41.2 per cent afterwards. After controlling for variables, the decline in home wins was not statistically significant; by contrast, the effect on refereeing performance, measured by the difference in yellow cards between home and away teams, was significant.

A review by the Premier League revealed that, in the 2020/21 season, away teams won more matches than home teams for the first time. Away teams scored more goals and conceded fewer than in the previous season. While the league attributed this to the reduced vocal intimidation in empty stadiums, it also reported that home advantage remained across the EFL as a whole, albeit with a narrower margin.

Referees and Cards: The Yellow-Card Gap

Calculations based on data from football-data.co.uk revealed that, in both the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons, away teams received an additional 0.25 yellow cards per match, followed by 0.27 in the 2018/19 season. This surplus fell to +0.06 in the 2020/21 season. The following season, this figure rose again, reaching +0.26 and bringing it close to the earlier figures.

Subsequent figures remained above those recorded when stadiums were empty. According to football-data.co.uk records, away teams received an additional 0.29 yellow cards per match in the 2023/24 season, 0.23 in the 2024/25 season, and 0.29 in the 2025/26 season. Therefore, the card gap has recovered more strongly than the home win rate.

Pressure from a partisan crowd can influence referees to make close calls in favour of the home team. They also tend to allow a little more added time when the home team is behind.

The away-team yellow-card excess narrowed during empty-stadium football and widened again afterwards. (source: The Guardian)

What the Last Three Seasons Show

The home win rates in each of the last three seasons listed in the table were higher than in the 2020/21 season. According to data from football-data.co.uk, the rates were 43.1%, 42.0% and 44.0%, with a home goal difference of +0.30, +0.17 and +0.31 per match respectively.

The Premier League reported that the home win rate increased in the 2021/22 season, partly due to fans returning to stadiums. At the sampled stage of the 2022/23 season, Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Newcastle United all scored more goals per home match than in the previous season. The league also identified less extreme defensive strategies employed by away teams as a factor contributing to more home wins. These observations relate to this phase of the season, while the above table takes into account completed seasons.

How to Read the Home Price

The home advantage is already factored into the football betting odds. A higher home win rate across the league does not offer a betting advantage in itself, and the favourite can still lose. The results of the 2020/21 Premier League season also demonstrate why venue adjustments estimated for an earlier era should be used with caution when matches are played in empty stadiums.

When comparing the price of a home win with historical figures, a few distinctions help.

• Use the results from the same league, since factors such as travel conditions, altitude, the atmosphere in the stands, and refereeing practices can vary.

• The home-ground advantage should be assessed separately for matches played at neutral venues, shared venues, and behind closed doors.

• Make sure you don't count the home advantage twice if it has already been included in a team’s 'expected goals' total.

• The sample size for home matches in a single season at club level is small, so caution should be exercised when interpreting the results.

Travelling and familiarity with the pitch, surface, procedures and changing rooms, as well as support from the crowd, can contribute to home advantage. The team with the lowest odds is the favourite, and this may be the away team even when the home team is benefiting from home advantage.

Readers following these leagues can find football betting markets at Jabula online, where Match Result offers home win, draw and away win outcomes, excluding extra time.

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