The 2025 Cheltenham Festival, spanning March 11-14 across 28 races, is Paul Kealy’s proving ground—a four-day crucible where the Racing Post’s contrarian guru dares to defy the odds with bold predictions for glory. In the Unibet-sponsored preview, Kealy’s standout calls—Absurd (County Hurdle), Molina Girl (Ultima Handicap Chase), and Billaway (Cross Country Chase)—buck the favorites, spotlighting sleepers at 8/1, 25/1, and 8/1. With the panel—Tom Segal, David Jennings, Nicky Henderson, and Ed Nicholson—weighing in, these picks could turn Cheltenham’s chaos into Kealy’s triumph. Can his contrarian vision cash in, or will the favorites foil his festival forecast?
Absurd’s County Coup: Kealy’s Friday Nap
Friday’s County Handicap Hurdle (14:00, March 14) at 8/1—boosted from 6/1 by Unibet—is Kealy’s festival nap, and Absurd, trained by Willie Mullins, is his contrarian crown jewel. “He’s laid out for this—cruised at Leopardstown,” he declared, his Christmas qualifier—a four-length rout over 2 miles off 135—outpacing Ethical Diamond with a late surge that stunned Irish watchers. “He’s my nap—class over hype,” Kealy grinned, Mullins’ Arctic Fire (2015, 20/1) a handicap echo—Absurd’s two wins from three starts keep him fresh for eight hurdles.
Facing King of Kingsfield (5/1), Kealy’s unshaken: “He’ll shorten—Friday’s his; Willie’s handicap king.” “Freshness wins—Absurd’s got gears,” he added, his Fairyhouse schooling last month—a 2-mile gallop—a hustler’s hint. Explore horse racing—Unibet’s non-runner no bet locks in 8/1 as Kealy’s bold call aims to cap Cheltenham with a £100,000 coup—contrarian gold in a deep field.
Molina Girl’s Ultima Upset: Tuesday’s Long-Shot Glory
Tuesday’s Ultima Handicap Chase (14:40, March 11) at 25/1 unveils Molina Girl—Kealy’s long-shot sleeper from Gavin Cromwell’s barn. “She’s a gem—loves a slog,” he argued, her Cheltenham win last November—a two-length grind over 2 miles 4 furlongs on heavy turf—outbattling Theatre Glory with stamina to spare. “Second in the Mares’ Chase last year—she’s battle-hardened,” Kealy noted, a neck shy of Sine Nomine in 2024 over 3 miles 1 furlong—a contrarian’s dream for 23 fences.
“Cromwell’s plotted her quiet—she’s ready,” he said, one Fairyhouse third since November keeping her fresh—against The Wall Park (5/1) and Chianti Classico (6/1), Kealy’s bold: “25/1’s mad—soft’s her turf.” “She’s my Day 1 dart—pays big,” he grinned—£100,000 looms as Molina Girl’s upset could kick off Kealy’s week with a bang, a sleeper sting defying the favorites’ glare.
Billaway’s Cross Country Charge: Wednesday’s Veteran Valor
Wednesday’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (15:20, March 12) at 8/1 features Billaway—Kealy’s veteran contrarian pick from Patrick Mullins’ yard. “He needs cut—he’s a tank,” he said, his 2022 festival win over 3 miles 6 furlongs—a nose ahead of Winged Leader on soft ground—a stayer’s badge. “Second last year—he’s got heart,” Jennings noted, a length shy of Delta Work in 2024—Billaway’s Fairyhouse run last month, a three-length chase win, keeps him sharp.
“Patrick peaks him—Wednesday’s his shot,” Kealy predicted, Delta Work (6/1) a favored foe—Billaway’s 27 fences a veteran’s valor test. “He’s a punt—soft ground’s key,” he mused—£75,000 awaits as Kealy’s contrarian call dares to defy the odds, Billaway charging for Cross Country glory in a field of grizzled grinders.
The Ground Game: Kealy’s Turf Tailwind
Weather tailors Kealy’s calls—softish early, drying by Friday, per clerk Jon Pullin’s good-to-soft base as of March 6. “Soft suits Molina—Tuesday’s hers,” Kealy said, her November win a mud-soaked seal—23 fences favor her slog. “Billaway loves cut—Wednesday’s perfect,” he added, 2022’s tacky turf his crown—Absurd “handles both—dry boosts him,” Jennings hedged, Leopardstown’s good-to-soft a versatile edge.
Lou Lamber’s Triumph form (5/2) contrasts—watch his flair, a British rival’s dry-ground dazzle:
“Soft early—Kealy’s plodders; dry late—speed fights,” Nicholson mused—ground’s a contrarian’s canvas, Tuesday’s slog, Wednesday’s grind, Friday’s finesse tilting his bold picks across Old and New Courses.
The Rival Roundup: British and Irish Foes
Kealy’s calls clash with rivals—Henderson’s Constitution Hill (7/4), Jonbon (11/10), and Lou Lamber (5/2) loom as British titans. “Connie’s Tuesday—silences them,” Nico vowed—Jonbon “redeems Wednesday.” “Lou flies Friday—future star,” Henderson said—Molina Girl, Billaway, and Absurd face a wall. Ireland’s King of Kingsfield (5/1) “tests Absurd,” Segal noted—Delta Work “grinds Billaway,” Jennings hedged.
“Kealy’s contrarian—picks sleepers over stars,” Nicholson said—The Wall Park (5/1) looms Tuesday—Kealy’s bold vision weaves through a field of foes, 8 to 27 obstacles a hustler’s gauntlet across four days.
The Panel’s Pulse: Bold or Bust?
The panel’s split fuels Kealy’s stakes—bold or bust, contrarian or crushed? Segal’s skeptical: “Absurd’s class—Molina’s a stretch; Billaway’s old.” Kealy’s firm: “Molina stuns Tuesday—Billaway grinds Wednesday—Absurd’s Friday gold.” Nicholson’s buzzed: “8/1, 25/1, 8/1 split bets—punters trust Paul’s eye.” Henderson’s steady: “My boys hold—Kealy’s punts are tough.”
“Kealy’s contrarian—loves the long shots,” Jennings grinned—panel pulse crackles, his 2010 Buena Vista (16/1) a ghost—Molina’s 23 fences, Billaway’s 27, Absurd’s eight hurdles test his nerve. “He’s bold—pays off or flops,” Segal mused—Tuesday to Friday, Kealy’s calls defy the favorites’ roar.
Kealy’s Cheltenham Verdict: Glory or Gloom?
Will Kealy’s contrarian calls claim Cheltenham glory from March 11-14? “Molina takes Tuesday—25/1 stings,” he predicted—Ultima’s £100,000 a bold kickoff. “Billaway rules Wednesday—8/1 grinds,” Jennings hedged—Cross Country’s veteran valor shines. “Absurd seals Friday—8/1’s my nap,” Kealy vowed—County Hurdle’s finale a contrarian crown.
“Henderson’s stars—Kealy’s sleepers,” Nicholson mused—market hums, King of Kingsfield’s 5/1, Delta Work’s 6/1 splitting bets—Britain’s wall looms. “Soft early—plodders win; dry late—speed tests,” Segal said—2 to 3 miles 6 furlongs unfold Kealy’s vision—Old to New Course, a hustler’s tale. “It’s bold—glory or gloom,” Jennings grinned—Unibet’s boosts dare punters—Molina’s slog, Billaway’s grind, Absurd’s class. Can Kealy’s predictions defy the odds for Cheltenham gold, or will his contrarian calls fade in the Cotswolds’ chaos?
